Will Xbox Series X/S make it to 40 million?

[JRPGfan]

Esparadrapo said:

Norion said:

I was responding to the scenario he presented but that's not the rational thing to do since it's not taking into account that 2025 is looking to be the biggest year for gaming this decade so it'd be very surprising if it only sells 3.25 million next year unless there's a bunch of delays and it turns out to not be that strong of a year. If a very US centric game College Football 25 causes a notable boost the month it comes out then GTA 6 is gonna cause a much bigger one than that and there's all the other games coming out next year including potentially the first COD game this generation to not be cross-gen.

Starfield was supposed to be the game of the generation for Xbox and hardware sales fell anyway.

You keep bringing up College Football constantly and that thing only managed to keep the Xbox USA sales afloat 1 month with something like 100k units over the same month last year. August and September have been complete disasters. College Football had zero legs. Nil. Nada. Like happened with Starfield, the correction next year will be massive, around 70% or more to stay in line with the ~35% loss on average these past two years.

And GTA 6 or the current gen exclusive CoD is still too far fetched. There's zero guarantee that GTA 6 will launch next year and the impact from CoD will depend on how the current one does on Game Pass.

I honestly don't expect Gamepass haveing CoD to result in much of anything, hardware sales wise.
20$ a month, is alot.... theres a CoD fanbase that only buy 2-3 games a year, and while they might get CoD at full price, the other games will be at discounts or free to play. That type of user, isn't saveing anything by haveing access to the game on gamepass (240$ a year).

What I suspect will happend, is that the xbox console fanbase, where they have 15m or so gamepass subs, who would otherwise buy the game, now wont.
Because they have gamepass anyways, why buy, if you plan to stay fulltime subcribed anyways?  So maybe this is a loss of say 5m potential sales or something.

Then theres the type that just wants to play the campagne on pc.... alot of these guys, will subscripe for a month, and then cancel their subscription afterwards.

I could see gamepass eating into revenue for call of duty.
I'm not sure it will have any boost on console hardware sales.


GTA6 will boost sales of both consoles hardware, by alot.
Like alot alot... esp. if word of mouth is good. It will have a long tail end effect on hardware sales.