shavenferret said:
Sorry it has taken me a bit of time to collect my thoughts and present them. We can go back and forth all day with these fuzzy concepts and so i'd like to present some hard data that has been collected and reported by the media. I think that this would be a better way for me to approach this issue. I don't think that the republicans are presented with an immediate and time sensitive crisis in the same way that the democrats are and that this will cause some degree of laxity in them. I think that if the turnout is high on election day, then democrats will win the day because they will be more motivated than republicans because of the crisis that one party has. Turnout may be low depending on the weather or other things going on. But we will have to see. I'll look up some articles on how turnout is going so far...... 1. Texas is an early voting state, and i know that it will ultimately side with the republicans, but if it has a high turnout, there will be a greater chance for a high turnout elsewhere. And guess what, they seem to be doing quite well, with dems doing well (for texas, lol). https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4947150-texas-early-voting-turnout-record/ 2. South Carolina. I've got one article on a record turnout so far. https://scvotes.gov/south-carolinians-break-record-on-opening-day-of-early-voting-period/ 3. Indiana..... same thing. 4. Missouri - Article mentions a "crazy turnout" 4. Kentucky- The article mentions that absentee ballots have been very high, which indicates that voters who cast on location at polling places will also be high. https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/election/voter-guide/article294412084.html 5. Conneticut. - Same thing here. They have a historic turnout. The bottom line is that even if you people dismiss my argument that enthusiasm will be higher with democrats, i can easily bring out supporting evidence that supports what I say. I have looked up articles and such to support my thesis. And i present the gallup poll which does indeed show democrats as having a higher level of voter enthusiasm than Republicans. here you all ( the-pi-guy, SanAndreasX, and JWeinCom) go: https://news.gallup.com/poll/649397/democrats-drive-surge-election-enthusiasm.aspx Lastly, I will ask the three of you if you realize that a higher voter turnout favors the democrats. This is a known thing. So, even if my reasoning was bad on the crisis and urgency thing, you can see a much simpler form of that with the enthusiasm and turnout stuff. So i'm still solid with this. |
Ah ok. Appreciate the clarification.
I would agree with a few caveats.
First, I'm not sure Texas will be going to the Republicans. Texas has been getting closer and closer in recent elections. It seems to be very close right now, and last year, Democrats actually took more of the election day vote than the Republicans did. Of course, that was last year, and this year is this year. I'm not saying Democrats will win Texas, but it would not shock me.
As for turnout, high turnout tends to favor the democrats. But, every election is different. It can be different this year. Looking at the campaign though, it's hard to see why people would be super enthusiastic to vote for Trump. Inflation is an issue, but it's been lowering, and I just don't see that as an issue that electrifies voters. I think voters that are voting for Trump because they think he will fix inflation, he won't, are the type that have mixed feelings about him, not the type to be rabid supporters. Meanwhile, I think voters who are voting because they think Trump is a threat, or based on abortion access are likely to be enthusiastic about their vote.
So, yeah, I don't disagree with you overall. Even though I'm anxious about the election, I can't rationally come up with a reason why Trump should be winning.
Ryuu96 said:
This is probably the true reason why Musk believes he will be arrested if Harris wins, Lol. I've said it before, yeah, there's some immigrants damaging America, but it isn't the ones Trump is banging on about, it's the twat from South Africa (Musk) and the other twat from Australia (Murdoch). What a coincidence that Musk was trying to influence peoples views on the war on Twitter as well, going as far as spreading outright bullshit Russian propaganda. This man is being promised a spot in Trump's administration, the guy who praises Vladimir Putin, alongside his VP, the guy who said he doesn't care what happens to Ukraine. Elon Musk just wants to be America's first Oligarch modelled after Russian Oligarchs. |
It is quite baffling that this will not lead to an electoral landslide for Harris. But I suppose the immigrants who made my breakfast sandwich, clean my office, do my plumbing, took care of my grandmother when her health was failing, help me on my projects, and performed my grandfather's surgery are way more of a threat to America than Vladmir Putin.
KManX89 said:
Which is ironic considering Trump supported one for Congress in 2017. Luckily slightly more than half of Alabama voters are against sexual assault and pedophilia and it failed. And his ties with Epstein, literally flying his jet to his small rallies which has people leaving. |
And groping a woman he met through Epstein.Trump on Epstein- "It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side.”
