2024 US Presidential Election

[zorg1000]

Chrkeller said:

the-pi-guy said:

Thanks for bringing in actual data. 

Chrkeller was arguing that companies don't like to lose money. Mistakes can still be made, even on the industrial scale. Bad data can make misleading conclusions. Even good data though, can be interpreted completely incorrectly. Especially when you don't have all the facts.

Bad data like Trump being under polled in 2016 and 2020?

Just because you don't like that data doesn't mean it is bad data. 

The data has it being tight, with an edge to Trump.

You shouldn't backhand jab the messenger.

And yes, professional betting firms aren't in the business of losing money and I'm certain they understand data better than the random folks in this thread.

Polling gets it wrong in both directions though. In 2012 they had Obama/Romney as a very close race with Romney slightly ahead a few weeks out and just about every post-Dobbs election has underestimated democrats.

Assuming that Trump is being underestimated based on 2016/2020 is a flawed way of thinking, things change and many notable things have happened since then like pollsters making changes to account for bias, Dobbs being a proven turnout motivator and Biden dropping out throwing things out of whack could all possibly lead to polls now underestimating Harris.

Silver Bulletin has Trump at 47.2% & 538 has him at 46.3% which are right around how he performed in 2016 (46.1%) & 2020 (46.8%). I don’t think they are underestimating him anymore.