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SvennoJ on 13 October 2024
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JWeinCom said:

The thing is, the article you're posting actually presents great news for the Harris campaign.

If we take it at face value, about half of black potential voters say they are definitely voting, and another 30% or so are very likely. That would be historical black turnout. Non-white turnout was about 58% in 2020 for comparison. 

Of course, that probable is not what's going to happen. Turnout may be higher, but that's a pretty drastic shift. It may be that people just felt pressured to say in the poll that they are very likely to vote even when they aren't.

Assuming the turnout isn't as high as claimed, who is more likely not to vote? History says more likely the black men will be the ones not voting as black women have always voted at higher rates. Not only that, but with the first black female president at the head of the ticket and the overturning of Roe v. Wade, it seems likely that to the extent turnout does exceed 2020, it would be more likely that black women will make up the lion's share of the increase.

I suspect that at the end of the day, the black male vote will be more similar to 2020 exit polls than they are suggesting. And I suspect there will be higher turnout among black people in general, so even if Trump does get a slightly higher percent, it will be a net gain for Harris.

I'm not trying to say that Harris has this in the bag, but there does seem to be a tendancy by many, including myself, to get skittish at every slightly negative sign. And, I do think that to some extent, this is something encouraged by many parties. By swing state democrats in the lower ballot to get more funding, from Republicans trying to inflate Trump's ego and lay the groundwork for their "election was stolen" argument, and from news outlets because a close race sure is a better story. 

I'm not saying it isn't close, I'm just saying have plenty of grains of salt at hand for the next three weeks. 

True, the article is about black voters. I'm just wondering about the old white male vote. However older generations are pretty set in their voting patterns regardless of who is on the ballot. And younger generations will / should identify more with Harris/Walz.

I'm just hoping the gap will be big enough to quickly quash any demands for recounts and other nonsense.