2024 US Presidential Election

[JWeinCom]

SvennoJ said:

One thing I haven't seen addressed yet here (might have missed it)

What effect can US' chauvinism have on the elections?

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4931267-sexism-racism-harris-maxwell-frost/

Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.) said Sunday he thinks sexism and racism “still exist” in U.S. politics, and it’s reflected in Vice President Harris’s run for office.

Frost joined CBS News’s “Face the Nation” to discuss remarks made by former President Obama, in which he called on Black men to turn out for Harris after seeing less energy among the critical voting bloc.

“I think it is an issue with a lot of different voters across this country, and it’s something that our country, you know, we’ve come a long way as in terms of women’s suffrage,” Frost said. “We’ve come a long way in terms of making sure of equity in this country, but there’s still a lot of this bigotry in this country in terms of sexism, in terms of racism, and we still have to work at getting over that.

“Those things are still here. They still exist in a lot of communities, and we still have a lot of work to do here,” he continued.

While Black men overwhelmingly voted for President Biden in 2020, signs are showing that support for Harris may be softening.

New polling shows former President Trump’s support among Black men increased. With just weeks left until Election Day, the Harris campaign is looking to pull out all the stops and regain footing among the typically Democratic voting group.

Frost said sometimes voters need to take a step back and examine their own biases, and he thinks that’s what Obama was trying to convey.

But Obama’s call to action drew criticism from some who said he was sending the wrong message. “I think President Obama was just having some very serious tough talk, right? Tough love … he was speaking directly to young Black voters, young Black men specifically, and making sure they understand,” Frost said.  


Harris will be the first elected female US president if she is elected. Pretty historical event.


I don't think it will be a done deal. It will be close, which will likely lead to riots when Trump loses, and that would be the best case scenario :/

The thing is, the article you're posting actually presents great news for the Harris campaign.

If we take it at face value, about half of black potential voters say they are definitely voting, and another 30% or so are very likely. That would be historical black turnout. Non-white turnout was about 58% in 2020 for comparison. 

Of course, that probable is not what's going to happen. Turnout may be higher, but that's a pretty drastic shift. It may be that people just felt pressured to say in the poll that they are very likely to vote even when they aren't.

Assuming the turnout isn't as high as claimed, who is more likely not to vote? History says more likely the black men will be the ones not voting as black women have always voted at higher rates. Not only that, but with the first black female president at the head of the ticket and the overturning of Roe v. Wade, it seems likely that to the extent turnout does exceed 2020, it would be more likely that black women will make up the lion's share of the increase.

I suspect that at the end of the day, the black male vote will be more similar to 2020 exit polls than they are suggesting. And I suspect there will be higher turnout among black people in general, so even if Trump does get a slightly higher percent, it will be a net gain for Harris.

I'm not trying to say that Harris has this in the bag, but there does seem to be a tendancy by many, including myself, to get skittish at every slightly negative sign. And, I do think that to some extent, this is something encouraged by many parties. By swing state democrats in the lower ballot to get more funding, from Republicans trying to inflate Trump's ego and lay the groundwork for their "election was stolen" argument, and from news outlets because a close race sure is a better story. 

I'm not saying it isn't close, I'm just saying have plenty of grains of salt at hand for the next three weeks.