I think it'll absolutely hit 40m, but 50m is definitely not happening. Weird, as early on, in the first year or two, it seemed to me like it was gonna definitely do better than XB1 and hit 60m or 70m.
Makes one wonder what the future of Xbox is. With them buying Activision Blizzard, and with Game Pass, it feels like they are gonna move off hardware and just focus fully on software and trying to keep Game Pass going.