| Chrkeller said: Polls are super tight. And Trump was under polled in 2016 and 2020. Given how awful he is and how amazing Harris is.... |
He was under represented in the polling but also has shown to have a ceiling of 47% in the popular vote.
538 polling average in 2016 had him at 41.8% while the final result was 46.1%
538 polling average in 2020 had him at 43.4% while the final result was 46.8%
Nate Silver (guy who created 538 and still has the rights to the model) polling average has him at 46.1%
From what I understand, pollsters have made adjustments to their methodology in order to try and fix the issue of under representing Trump and it seems as though they have fixed that issue considering his polling is right around his 2016/2020 results. It actually wouldn’t surprise me if polling is now under representing Harris.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
