2024 US Presidential Election

[JWeinCom]

sundin13 said:

JWeinCom said:

It's hard to know the distribution. There's not a ton of reliable polling data in places like Oregon, California, New Jersey, or Mississippi because we already know who is going to win there, and frankly, nobody cares if Trump is going to win Kansas by 20 or 25. 

Whether we extrapolate from the popular vote or look at the swing state data, we get to the same thing, that Harris is winning by a very very small margin. Of course, a win is a win, but due to the limitations of polls, it's hard to predict anything with confidence. 

While I agree that Harris is not leading by much, the conventional wisdom of "She may need to win nationally by 2-3 points to win the election" may be a bit outdated. Per Nate Silver, polling this cycle indicates that the electoral advantage may have significantly shrunk (obviously that is contingent on poll accuracy):

There are three possibilities. Either the vote distribution has shifted pretty significantly, the popular vote is off, or the swing state polling is off. Personally, I'm inclined to think the first is the most likely. It certainly can happen. For instance Ohio and Florida shifted drastically to the right since 2016 to the point where they're not even considered swing states now, and Georgia and North Carolina have been shifting left. But, over the course of four years, I'm not so inclined to believe there is such a drastic shift.

Last edited by JWeinCom - 1 day ago