| Ryuu96 said: Biden took Michigan by 154,188 votes. According to the Arab American Institute, Michigan has 392,722 Arab-Americans though other sites put that number at around 221,631 or 310,087 or 211,405...So lets just say 220k - 400k. Though it's not accurate to say just because they're all Arab-Americans they won't vote for Democrat. We do have the 100,000 protest voters in the Democrat Primary but again, it's not accurate to say they all won't vote Democrat come election day. According to American Community Survey there are 784,200 Polish-Americans in Michigan, US 2000 Census listed 854,844 so lets just say 780k - 854k. Now just as there's a conflict in the Middle-East that may sway the decisions of Arab-Americans there's also a conflict in Europe which may sway the decisions of Polish-Americans. Roughly 30-40k Ukrainians in Michigan too. Polish-Americans also have a strong population in Pennsylvania too which is the most important state but again, it's not necessarily all going to convert into votes for Democrats but it could have just as much of an impact as the Middle-East crisis. I don't know how it's ultimately going to affect things but making claims like she has lost Michigan is jumping to conclusions very quickly and yes I think there should be a ban on offensive weaponry to Israel. I say this as someone who doomed the Democrat Party after Trump's assassination attempt. It's not even the first time Iran has attacked Israel this year... |
fair enough. I was being a bit exaggeratory in saying "it's [completely] joever" for Harris in Michigan admittedly (especially knowing how liberal y'all are on here lol), and I don't compeltely buy into the theory of the Polish-American vote outweighing the >100k protesting Muslim-Americans. I would need to look at data, specifically to see if there is evidence of (a.) substantial shift in voting trends amongst this demographic of ppl specifically in Michigan (or anywhere in the USA) and (b.) if there is any increase in motivation for these ppl to go out to vote. Intuition may tell you that there are obvious answers to these question, though intuition tells me that Ukraine-Russia is a bit more multifaceted of an issue amongst the American voters, hence potentially explaining a situation where the answers these questions is "no". Hundred thousand protesters in Michigan is gonna be a very tall obstical to overcome, especially in a state which only voted 2pts in favor of Biden in 2020 in a country that has seen a 5pt swing rightward.
