| shavenferret said: So.... Kennedy has dropped out, will most of his supporters go to trump or harris? |
Depends on what you mean by a Kennedy supporter. Most of his support has traditionally come from Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. I've noticed in the polls that, specifically, his bedrock base of greatest support has come from younger working class people of color who describe themselves as moderates. His strongest support came from that group. Kennedy's problem is that most of those people ditched him pretty much as soon as Biden got replaced with Harris at the top of the Democratic ticket. It turns out they weren't actually insane, they just didn't want to vote for Trump or Biden and the Kennedy family name is naturally culturally associated with the Democratic brand given its history. Without those core supporters, the vast majority of his original "fan base" was now gone. (Having begun his independent run for the presidency last year with around 15% support, he was now averaging around 5% or less.) This prompted him to concede there was no point in continuing. His few remaining backers at this point are mostly right-leaning people anyway, which feels off-brand for a Kennedy, and his decision to endorse Trump really reflects that.
The polling bears this conclusion out, showing, on average, that in a strict head-to-head race between Harris and Trump, about 60% or so of Kennedy's remaining supports wind up defaulting to Trump. Still, some go to Harris too and the difference pushes her support up to nearly the key 50% threshold. (Here, for example, is RCP's breakdown of the average candidate support levels with third-party candidates included and without them. The Harris margin shrinks 0.5% without third party candidates, but her overall vote share rises to 48.4% on average. And mind you that RCP's averages are the worst ones for Harris. And also that Harris can realistically expect a further bump in the polls this week as a result of last week's DNC as well.) So, in other words, as a Kamala Harris supporter, I'm not worried.
Last edited by Jaicee - on 26 August 2024
