Ryuu96 on 15 August 2024
Spoiler!
Our presidential forecast is back! We give Kamala Harris a 52% chance of winning the election https://t.co/z0eqOZEun6 pic.twitter.com/3AZItMMQLf
— Owen Winter (@OwenWntr) August 15, 2024
If the election were held today, the model gives Harris a 61% chance of winning. But there are three months left to go until the election (and only three weeks of polls, so far). As a result the model leans pretty heavily on "fundamentals"
— Owen Winter (@OwenWntr) August 15, 2024
These fundamentals point to a narrow Harris lead in popular vote, but a Trump victory in the electoral college. This drags her 61% chance in a "nowcast" down to 52% in the "forecast"
— Owen Winter (@OwenWntr) August 15, 2024
Until then: it's a tossup! https://t.co/IbAaf9Qb0j
— Owen Winter (@OwenWntr) August 15, 2024
