2024 US Presidential Election

[Jumpin]

sundin13 said:

Hell of a day for polling today for Harris.

First was the Bullfinch poll, which showed Harris up 4 in PA, up 6 in MI and up 9 in WI (Registered Voters in a 5 way race). Bullfinch isn't rated by Nate Silver or 538 so who knows how good this pollster is, but those are big numbers. Especially following up that NYT/Sienna poll which had Harris up 4 in all three states, she's having a good couple days in the Rust Belt.

Then there were a bunch of General polls dropped:
Morning Consult (Aug 9-11): Harris +3
Morning Consult (Aug 6-8): Harris +4
Morning Consult (Aug 3-5): Harris +3
Redfield & Wilton: Harris +3
Big Village: Harris +3

Some of those polls are better than others, but that is a solid, consistent and reproducible lead across several national polls, pulling her national lead on 538 to +2.8pts (up from +2.3 yesterday).

There were also a handful of Favorability polls which showed Harris/Walz performing favorably when compared to Trump/Vance. The Big Village Favorability poll has the fewest "No Opinions" I've seen yet for Tim Walz and still gave him +7 Favorability among Likely Voters so it seems like the Right's new favorite attacks aren't really having much of an impact (but it is still early so a lot can change). Kind of unfortunate for them that they finally seem to kind of be finding some footing right when the DNC is about to start and dominate headlines for a bit.

Polls | FiveThirtyEight (I always sort by "Added" to see what just dropped)

Yeah, I was looking at the aggregate, it has swung several points in Kamala Harris's favour:

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Others/ Undecided [a]	Margin
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[4]	through August 8, 2024	August 12, 2024	47.3%	43.6%	3.1%	6%	Harris +3.7%
FiveThirtyEight[5]	through August 11, 2024	August 12, 2024	46.1%	43.3%	4.9%	5.7%	Harris +2.8%
Silver Bulletin[6]	through August 8, 2024	August 12, 2024	46.6%	43.8%	4.1%	5.5%	Harris +2.8%
Average	46.7%	43.6%	4%	5.7%	Harris +3.1%

Foolish MAGA concern trolls: "B-B-B-But... Kamala Harris isn't who the Democratic voters want! It's NOT WHO THEY VOTED FOR!!! "