US Politics |OT|

[Renamed]

Shtinamin_ said:

Renamed said:

Can you elaborate on these? 

1. His values? Not the ones from his campaign page, I mean his actual values.  His.

2. And what he will give up?

3. What does he believes in?

Ryuu96 said:

Fucking dying at the choice of images used.

"By contrast, only 12% say the same of Vice President Kamala Harris is [too old]."

She's only 59.  Ouch.

Thanks for the questions. I hope your words were to actually learn and converse than to throw away and dismantle. (Positive energy than contention).

1. Some of his values: Go-getter, direct, diligent, compassionate, goal oriented, helpful, charitable, charismatic, courteous, proud, accountable, passionate, competitive, self-assured, tough, impulsive, tradition defying, patriotism, opportunist, etc…
2. Some things he has, is and will give up: He is willing to give up his life as he puts it on the line every time he goes in public. He is giving up a stress-free life by not getting involved in politics. He is giving up time to be with his family. He has given up his relationships with famous people ever since 2015 he has lost and will continue to lose relationships with acquaintances, friends and even loved ones. He gave up his presidential salary, etc…
3. Some things he believes in right now (for that is who he is at the moment): equal opportunity, freedom of choice, the US amendments and rights, states have constitutional power/responsibility, protecting and supporting people, sustainability, self-sufficiency, peace, family, etc…
   
   
   Can I ask you those same three questions? What are his values? What is he willing to give up? And what does he believe in?

I might as well ask the same questions for Kamala. It is fair to see both sides. I’ll work on those questions for her as well.

I started to reply but in truth, this could easily fill up its own thread.  I was typing long rebuttals to everything but we really need a dedicated thread for discussing Trump.  

I will state that you appear to view Trump from the viewpoint that he is just like any other regular ole father.  That is an inaccurate lens to view with.  I'll discuss more if we get a thread (or resurrect an old Trump thread).  I appreciate you answering my questions and I feel I'm being unfair by not responding back to you in depth.  And I'll answer the same Q's regarding Harris there.  

sundin13 said:

Renamed said:

And I'll post my periodic reminder that all of these polls use "likely voters". That means people that have already voted in the previous election. They do not include new voters or previously disinterested voters.

And I'll let you guess which candidate has static voters and which one is gaining new or reinvigorated voters.

Quick correction: Some of the polls use "likely voters", not all. If you head over to 538, you'll see they post "LV", "RV" or "A" next to the poll's sample size to indicate whether it was conducted with Adults, Registered Voters or Likely Voters. This is actually why 538's forecast is more left leaning than RCP's for example. The likely voter population in this cycle is expected to be more blue than the registered voter population, so they adjust for that. That also means that as we get closer to the election day and more polls switch from RV to LV, we are expected to see Kamala getting a small boost in polling numbers. 

You're right though that they don't just ask who is a likely-voter, they make a determination based on several questions they ask. Here are some example questions I found from Pew Research: 

• How much thought have you given to the coming presidential election?
• How closely have you been following news about the candidates?
• Do you plan to vote in the presidential election? How certain are you that you will vote?
• Rate your chance of voting in November on a scale of 10 to 1, with 10 being “definitely will vote” and 1 “definitely will not vote.”
• How often do you follow what’s going on in government and public affairs?
• Have you ever voted in your precinct or election district?
• How often would you say you vote?
• Do you happen to know where people in your neighborhood go to vote?
• In the last election, did things come up that kept you from voting or did you vote?

538 is just an aggregator of polls, just like RCP.  Neither actually publishes their own in-house polls.   You're are correct regarding the use of "LV", "RV" or "A" but if you drill down into what those mean, you'll better understand what I'm getting at.   Specifically, these surveys are typically sent out to voter roles, that is known registered voters.  This is far easier to obtain and allows the MoE to be listed as greatly reduced (known quantity vs unknown).  And sure they use other lists too but they are often known quantity lists (sales lists, subscriber lists, cell phone number owner lists, credit card lists, etc...) but all of these are woefully lacking on properly surveying the young, new and disinterested voters.