Will Xbox Series X/S make it to 40 million?

[Norion]

XtremeBG said:

Norion said:

6m is definitely looking really unlikely so far sure. How it does in the US is the most important factor and I'd be quite surprised if it only did half of 250k in the US in June but I guess we'll see what happens. September should have a relatively big drop yeah but it seemingly having a relatively decent July this year should help make up for that. My main point is the trend for this year so far points towards a drop smaller than you've been envisioning for the holidays so until more data comes in for the next couple months I guess we can just agree to disagree for now.

The year began with smaller drops yes, however the more we enter into the year the bigger drops they become. XBSX went from selling ~80k per week to selling ~50k per week. It already became ugly. If the sales were steady from the start of the year, then I could agree it can have nice boost, and with steady sales month after month yes, even 6M seemed fine. But with those drops getting bigger every single month, and doing barely 100k in US, I can't just agree it comes July and the steady sales every month begin, and nice holiday boost comes, and 5M+ for the year is there, finishing only 30% down from 2023 (which is still ugly in it's 4th year). The trend points, but the trends also pointed for a level very close to last year, and we are the half of the year and last year it was almost 2.2M by end of may, and now is barely 1.5M. How I can have faith in what the trend points, when I believed it should do something on par with 2023, and Microsoft instead of helping the system to sell more, they help it to sell less. Closing of studious, revealing new models without pricecuts, and even one that is the most expensive one, and increasing the price of gamepass. They act like they are market leader, not the market underdog.

It had somewhat bigger drops in February and March than May so the idea that it's been getting worse as the year has gone on with the drops getting bigger every month is wrong. The data does not point to the declines getting drastically worse for the rest of the year.