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Norion on 19 July 2024
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Esparadrapo said:
Norion said:

I still don't get why you're so sure it'll decline significantly more in November+December and the 2nd half of the year in general than it has for the year overall so far. I can accept the possibility of it failing to reach 5m in a worst cast scenario but there's no way it ends up closer to 4m than 5m by the end of the year so it's not gonna finish around 4m. For this month College Football 25 is coming out today and there's indications that it's gonna sell some consoles in the US so July could be a relatively decent month for the Xbox Series this year.

Because so far the drop has been steady unless there was an event that partially softened the drop. Last year there was the launch of Starfield and the insane discounts in Christmas. If there's none of that like there wasn't in Black Friday last year you can expect a 50% drop from two years ago which is the par of course meaning ~4.5M this year give or take depending on management and external factors.

I don't know why in the world College Football would make a difference for Xbox when PS5 is so far ahead even in the USA. A good month or two ain't gonna change anything. And runaway hits like Palworld didn't change anything either even being exclusive to Xbox in consoles and being on Game Pass.

The trend is there, I honestly don't know why you are so dead set ignoring it.

Starfield had weak reception so didn't boost sales outside of September and this year has the first COD game on Game Pass and they're obviously gonna push that so there's no reason to assume the holiday sales will be worse than last year to such a large degree. A 30% drop would still be really bad and is what I'm expecting and it's currently 30% down so far this year and was 30% down in May so I'm not ignoring the trend at all actually, my expectations are right in line with it.

For why College Football 25 will make a difference it's cause it's a popular game that's releasing on Xbox. The notion that cause the PS5 is more popular big multiplat releases won't benefit the Xbox Series is absurd, it's obviously gonna benefit cause some people will still choose to a buy an Xbox instead of a PS5. For some evidence of that here's a tweet from Welfare who tracks the US console market very closely. https://x.com/Welfare_JBP/status/1813254132079501367