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Norion on 18 July 2024
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Hardstuck-Platinum said:
Norion said:

It should be higher than 2.5m by then since while it only did 230k this May that month is a relatively weak one for console sales and June is a relatively strong one so it shouldn't sell just 200k that month. I don't see it only doing 1.5m then since that would be a massive drop from the nearly 2.9m it did last year. There should be a big drop but 2m seems a lot more realistic. The Xbox One did over twice as much as 1.5m then even in 2019 and the Xbox Series isn't far behind the pace of that year so far so that would be a far better comparison for it than 2020.

I do agree that the comeback potential for the Xbox Series seems non-existent. I just think you're being pessimistic about its sales trajectory to an unrealistic degree. It's gonna do worse than the Xbox One for sure but the drop will be closer to 10m than 15m unless the successor releases 2026.

You have to consider that The XBS consoles had very aggressive price cuts last holiday. The Series S went as low as 150$ and X 350$. I don't think they will do those price cuts again, and the 600$ XBSX 2tb is an indicator that they don't want to lose money on consoles anymore trying to compete with PS when they will lose in sales regardless. Even if they did though, it wouldn't have the same effect as last holiday. 

You also have to consider that Starfield launched and that game was one of the most hyped games I'd ever seen in my life. Without starfield they would have been down in sales much more than they were. Finally, this year they might be competing with the PS5 Pro, and that console is going to make the XBSX look outdated. Overall The XBS Series consoles had things going for it last year that it won't have this year 

There will for sure be deals this holiday season but we'll see just how good they are this time sure and Starfield didn't move that much hardware due to its weak reception, September had a boost but then it was back to normal by October so the lack of Starfield wouldn't have had a significant impact. 

You're right that the PS5 Pro will have a negative impact though it does also have things going for it this year that it didn't last year for example Black Ops 6 being on Game Pass is notable. Overall the situation is bad but it's not bad enough to make it more likely than not to fail to reach 5m for the year.