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Ryuu96 said:

They've been plenty of wars since the Cold War though, a few which European countries have been involved in but not war between two nuclear holding countries or a World War. The current issue is Western Europe is absolutely terrified at the prospect of a war with a nuclear holding country and one that can actually fight back, it's one thing to aerial bomb the shit out of Afghanistan and another to do it to Russia. Spain has had troops in Latvia since 2017. We've increased the amount of troops on the Eastern Flank though for obvious reasons.

Actions speak louder than words, the fact is America expected Kyiv to fall within 72 hours and tried to get Zelenskyy out of the country, that would have essentially been Ukraine falling, Germany didn't even believe an invasion was happening, it took days for us to decide to send weapons and it took months for us to decide to send MBTs, then months for Long-Range Missiles, then months for Jets. We point blank refused a no-fly zone over Ukraine at the time and Kyiv was almost encircled and we still did nothing. Germany still refuses to send Taurus and US/UK/France refuse to lift utterly idiotic military restrictions on Ukraine to hit airfields in Russia. Spain and Italy send next to nothing.

How can you see these events and believe that the West was about to send troops into Ukraine? I'll be a bit fair, I think there is possibly a scenario where Poland/Baltics say "fuck it" and send troops into Ukraine together but UK/US/France/Germany have consistently shown cowardice to do the right thing and Italy/Spain are irrelevant to the conversation, I want to be proven wrong, but I keep being disappointed, specifically about Western Europe + America but the issue is without these guys, the rest of Europe is unlikely to do anything without them.

The Baltics, Nordics, Eastern Europe are the only ones I can say are really clearing their stocks for Ukraine. France for a period straight up refused to let EU buy artillery for Ukraine outside of Europe, the Czech initiative is anonymous donations and actually in fact it has been reported that many of the countries involved are Russian-friendly countries outside of Europe.

Czech Republic essentially confirmed this, Czech officials said that the country's post-Soviet past was an advantage in acquiring ammo, they have a significant arms industry with global customers and good relations with many countries in the Global South with large stockpiles of Soviet-era weapons and the ability to produce more, essentially Czech is more trusted by the Global South than America/Western Europe.

It's long to answer.

When the Cold War ended, NATO became the de facto global military hegemon. Therefore, he no longer needed a military reserve. Army warehouses were drastically reduced and the capacity of military factories as well. The immense money saved could be used for other things.

Luckily the USA preserved part of its industry and its warehouses. But in the European case the decline was dramatic. For example, in 2022 Germany could produce 100 Leopard 2 tanks in 65 months and had also lost the ability to simultaneously produce self-propelled guns and tanks. The German military industry was configured to meet peacetime needs. And if that was the situation of the German giant, there is no need to comment on what it was like in the rest of the European nations.

Then Russia starts the war. For example, in the summer of '22, Europe and the USA delivered 155 mm ammunition to Ukraine that would take us 3 years to replace. We must quickly rebuild our defense industry. But that takes years. And in the meantime, we must send whatever weapons we can to Ukraine and train Ukrainian soldiers to contain Russia.

Luckily the Russian army appears weak. Russia's plans to win the war fail one after another. The Russians made an emergency mobilization because they knew that Ukraine had more personnel, more weapons, more technology and even more firepower. The Russians put up defenses of tens of kilometers because they knew that Ukraine was creating a reserve of three army corps for a high-intensity offensive. They estimated that the Ukrainian attack would be 29 mechanized battalions with 1.5 million artillery and rocket ammunition. Ukraine wanted to achieve great success and force a peace negotiation. But the Russian army swims in defensive systems. And the Ukrainian counteroffensive failed. The result is that we are trapped in a war of attrition where both sides increase their military production. Only Russia has done it 1.5 years before us. We Europeans still do not manufacture enough weapons. The USA could send what is missing, but Trump and MAGA decide that the USA will no longer give Ukraine more weapons.

Little by little the balance of forces is reversed. And it is Russia that happens to have the advantage in personnel and in almost everything else. At the end of winter the situation becomes dramatic because Russia begins to have an advantage in the two most important aspects: electronic and air warfare. Furthermore, the Ukrainian lines are broken and they are now fighting in improvised lines that will collapse. The Ukrainian army is a cacophony of units fighting at the section level, each doing what they can, but it is not enough. There are few units left that still fight well and the Russians focus their attacks against them because they know that the specialists are there and are irreplaceable.

Analysts estimate that Ukraine has lost 9,000 combat systems fighting Russia. And the worst thing is the lack of Ukrainian specialists: Russia is trying hard to kill the specialists. And it is easy for Russia to know where they are: where Ukrainian units fight well. 

European governments know that the collapse of the Ukrainian army will be in the winter; hopefully they will last until January 2025. European nations told Russia that if the Ukrainian army collapses then we will go to war. They told him this because they knew that the Ukrainian army was going to collapse.

Fortunately, there was a revolt in the US government to overcome the Trump and MAGA blockade and be able to deliver weapons to Ukraine. There was that revolt because they knew that the Ukrainian army was going to collapse (and because the Japanese prime minister traveled to the USA and told them off).

Thanks to the anti-Trump rebellion, the collapse of the Ukrainian army is postponed. But there is another actor on the scene from the beginning: China.

Analysts first calculate China's actual defense spending. And the result is between 35% and 45% larger than the official one. Then they calculate the RMC (relative military cost) of China. And the result is that China spends between 639 and 901 billion on defense. The USA spends 906 billion on defense. And in case anyone doesn't know: the function of an army is to avoid wars. It has to be powerful so that the enemy decides not to start the war. China is on its way from being an enemy that does not attack us, to one that does attack us. And in case anyone doesn't know: NATO is officially an organization to combat China. The moment the first missile falls on Taiwan, we Europeans will be at war.

In case anyone didn't know: the Russians read everything that enemy analysts write. That's why analysts only publish what they already know in Moscow. And that's why people like us only learn what they already know in Moscow.