| RolStoppable said: Did Biden or Scholz ever say that they want Ukraine to win this war? I don't think they did. They've always framed it as "Russia must not win this war" and that's exactly the strategy they are following. Give Ukraine enough to keep them in the game, but don't give them enough to win. |
What I think happens is this:
At the end of the Cold War, European nations reduced their military industry and military stores to peacetime. The USA also did so, although it retained part of its old industry and warehouses. Now it's time to expand it, but that takes time and you have to endure in the meantime.
Expelling Russia from Ukraine is not possible because we would have to empty our ammunition stores of all kinds. For example, just to recover Crimea, the USA and Europe would have to hand over more than half of their stock of precision rockets. And then we have nothing left to deter China and the war in that area begins.
Our plan for this year is to contain the Russians to wear them down and give in when the pressure becomes too great.
The Russians know that the European military industry grows without much effort on our part and that the Russian industry maintains production, but at the cost of skyrocketing costs and sinking quality. They know that it is not sustainable and that in a year (or two at most) they will be screwed. And they know that from now until winter it doesn't matter if Trump wins because there will be no need for more American aid because we will manufacture enough to support Ukraine. The Russian plan is to take down Ukraine this winter because they have no other choice. Since their plan can work (there are only a handful of Ukrainian units capable of a coherent defense and they focus all their attacks on them), they are already telling Russia that if it succeeds then there will be a European force in Ukraine.
