Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

[Bofferbrauer2]

Russia is running out of tanks:

While the total number of 3657 counted seem like there's still a lot left, about a third of them are in so much disrepair that cou can almost write them off as just good for parts anymore, and half of those 3657 are in a poor condition, meaning they will need some serious effort (and thus time and ressources) to get them fully operational again.

The tanks models in general are also getting older. They ran out of T-90 and have only about 25% of T-80 left. More than half of the T-72B are also gone already, meaning Russia needs to use more and more their age-old tank models like the T-62 (the model of which Russia still has the highest reserves, having lost just over a third of the reserves) and T-54/55, of which they still have over 200 in storage.

The T-72A meanwhile constitutes the bulk of the tanks considered barely worth recovering and will probably for the most part only used for parts and the like, while Russia is reluctant to use their T-64 in Ukraine, probably because that model is the Ukrainian MBT and could easily provoke some heavy friendly-fire, so they're not in widespread use. This explains why Russia still has around 90% of pre-war stocks on both models - it's just not worth for Russia to reactivate both types most of the cases.

Long story short, Russia's Army is getting less and less mechanized, to the point that in 2 years, they might have entire divisions that are fighting entirely without mechanized vehicles - which will make any try to advance for them a suicide mission. Russia's devolving back to human wave tactics of early WW2 - without the manpower to sustain such tactics even in the short run.