Fight-the-Streets said:
Spindel said:
If the successor comes out this holiday, Q1 2025 or early Q2 2025 as rumored, I don’t think it will pass 150 M.
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XtremeBG said:
Switch will most likely pass 150M however with the current speed and drops it is doing every month, I don't see it much above that, unless price cut happens. It dropped 50% worldwide in total sales, since January. It made almost 1M and for April it was 600k almost half of what January was. And with the drops keep getting bigger every month, and the Japan market also began to drop in the last few weeks, Switch is all but sure to have 500k months going forward. And I won't be surprised if by the time we enter September and October it has reached 400k monthly. With this speed and drops I expect even bigger ones next year when the successor is announced and launched. So at this point in time, unless price cut happens I am not seeing Switch much above 150M when all is said and done. Maybe 155M at the most. I can accept the range of 150-155M.
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Slownenberg said:
If Switch 2 comes out let's say Spring of next year, Switch will probably have about 150m sold to consumers around when next gen starts. But unless they do price cuts, Switch sales will fall to barely anything once the next system is out. Even if S2 costs $400 (which seems likely at this point with no OLED price cut cuz they aren't gonna price next gen concurrently at same price as the predecessor), that's gonna pretty much kill off all Switch sales except the $200 Lite. So without price cuts, or unless they somehow hold off next gen launch until late next year which would be a very bad business decision for their year, Switch ain't hitting 155m. 150m for sure and then it may limp to like 152-153 million, 155m not without price cuts, and no reasonable path to 160m.
Remember sales of Switch have been quite poor for the past 12-18 months everywhere in the world other than Japan except for during the Mario movie / TotK boost which lasted a couple months last year. Switch sales have been limping outside Japan for a while now. The only thing that will juice Switch sales at this point is big price cuts, which are probably not gonna happen. And as soon as next gen starts nobody is going to be buying an old system priced only slightly lower than a brand new next gen system.
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I don't address @Spindel as he's number is beyond. Therefore, @XtremeBG and @Slownenberg and anybody else in a similar ballpark:
I guess you guys expect the Switch to ship about 9m this FY which would bring the lifetime shipping to about 150.3m by end of March 2025. I guess then you expect the Switch to sell about 5m for the rest of its life and we would end at a final tally of about 154.3m (Slownenberg's number is already below that).
The are two major issues with the above prediction:
- With only 9m for this FY, Nintendo would miss its forecast by 33.33%. That is too big of a mismatch! I know that Nintendo has missed its forecasts several times and you think the shareholders wouldn't care as the Switch clearly has run its course and the focus is on a successful start of Switch 2. But why has Nintendo then predicted the 13.5m? You think they looked at the number from FY24, i.e. 15.7m, and just pulled the 13.5m out of their asses because it is not a too big decline and therefore the shares wouldn't be negatively affected that much? If you really think that – I have no words for it, it's plain wrong! Sure, most probably no shareholder would sue Nintendo and even if, the worst outcome for Nintendo would be to pay a small penalty and they would just laugh it away with their huge cash reserves. The problem with that is that no serious company (and Nintendo is one) is operating like that and for what anyway? What is there to gain? For a short moment in time where you have avoided that the shares plummet too much? Ironically, if they would miss this forecast, the shares would plummet anyway and probably harder than if they would have been honest in the first place and actually would have forecasted a more realistic number.
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So in your scenario, after shipping 9m in FY25, the sales would drop by around 60% to 3.6m in FY26 and then the Switch would sell about another 1.4m for the rest of its life with end of production in the year 2027. The problem with this scenario is that it's just conveniently made up to meet the agenda of Switch's lifetimes sales below 155m. A 60% drop, yes sure, possible but also after an already sharp drop of 57.33% drop in FY25 (from 15.7m down to 9m). The same problem with the assumption of Switch's end of production in 2027, about 2 years after ther release of Switch 2. Again, it's possible but at the same time, the Switch's post successor life is conveniently made short to fit the agenda of lifetimes sales below 155m.
What should I say: The above scenario is much less realistic than Kamala Harris becoming the next US-President.
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