Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

[Tico]

On the Russian sites I visit, the situation and fate of Crimea are clear:

-An infantry unit can be formed in months. But so that they don't get massacred they need a minimum of specialists. And for them to fight effectively they need lots of specialists. It takes so many years to train specialists that every time one is killed the replacement will arrive after the war is over.

-The Ukrainian lines are broken, now they fight in improvised forms that will gradually collapse. Only a handful of Ukrainian units are capable of making a coherent defense and all Russian attacks are focused on them. The Russians lose 5 to 1 in these fights, but the Ukrainian specialists are dying and the gaps in the defense are widening.

-The Russian command calculated that they were going to "win" in the sense that they would melt down the Ukrainian army this winter and negotiate peace. Then they would let them keep Crimea, the Donbass and maybe some of southern Ukraine. In other words, their "victory" would be to remain almost the same as in 22. Well, what a "victory." Furthermore, they calculated that, even if everything goes wrong, Ukraine will never be able to recover its territory.

-They started to worry when we said that we will not send troops. If we say that we will not do it, it means that we want to do it but we cannot yet for political reasons. And then the messages became more and more explicit.

-By attacking from Russian soil they have given us the excuse to send the specialists that Ukraine needs. And we do it disguised as "coaches." The first step was already taken. Now the climb will slowly grow unless we are given another excuse to accelerate it. And we can assume that Putin will give it to us because he is like that.

-The Russian command knows that they do not melt these new ones who come. And those who are coming are going to recover the occupied territory.

-The Russian officers who are at the front also know it. Before, they were asked to send their men to fight so that Russia keeps Crimea and keeps some of southern Ukraine. And that makes sense to them because they believe that Crimea is Russian territory. Now they are being asked to keep doing it for no fucking reason. There is something they can do and are probably already doing: a covert sit-down strike.

-Putin now only has to include those who have served in the Russian military. And when those are defeated it's over. Putin is placing weapons systems in Russian cities so that Ukraine can attack them and have the excuse to get them in.