April Circana (NPD) 2024 Thread + Predictions

[Shtinamin_]

Norion said:

Phenomajp13 said:

I missed that because I never read your initial post to begin with, you replied to me clearly assuming my post was at you, which it wasnt. I only read your reply to me. I have noticed it's fiscal year goal has sat in people's mind ever since it was made. I know why of course but the obsession over it is too funny.

Anyways no whats upsurd is you making a big deal out of a single quarter. This is a single quarter which is already predicted to be down, since clearly Nintendo has already predicted a decline for the entire year and knows they released a massive piece of software last year at this time. We literally have no idea what the remaining 3 quarters hold. Tell me, do you think there is anything Nintendo can do to make it? If yes, then why post nonsense such as "basic logic that the massive declines are gonna continue for at least the next couple months"? This reads as if there is no chance. If you still believe there is something Nintendo can do, then why focus or even bring up the goal if clearly you are smart enough to realize two or three months will simply not have that much affect on the overall goal? I am not saying you can't discuss the goal, but talks of whether it will make it or not are premature at best.

That's pretty strange then since I was literally the only person to bring up the forecast in this thread before that post. Who exactly is obsessed with it? This is the first time I've brought it up in weeks and I've not seen much talk about it lately.

The first quarter being down massively is obviously a big deal since that means they'll have to make it up elsewhere to keep the overall decline small and with this year having nothing on the level of the Mario film and TOTK and the Switch 2 not being that far off indicates that every quarter should be down significantly with the only potential exception being Q4 since that one was relatively low last time. Though the Switch 2 will be fully known about by then which will work against this Q4. 

The only way Nintendo can potentially make it is with a big price cut, not just a standard one but cutting it by like a full 100 since a regular one would only have so much impact this late in its life and I highly doubt they'll do that. I brought up the goal since things are already looking bad for it and saying that a full 25% of the year being down massively won't have that much affect on the overall goal is ridiculous due to what I said in the last paragraph. There's nothing wrong with speculating over whether it'll make it this early since the circumstances of this fiscal year are already fairly well known and it's an interesting topic to think about.

I think that most of the talk about the FY goals was earlier this month. I at least already have expectations for how they will reach their goal.

• Price cuts (like you said $100), I agree with that. Switch $199, Switch Lite $99, Switch OLED $249
• Bundles with top 5 best selling franchises (not including Pokémon). Mario Kart 8 Deluxe with Booster Course Pass, Tears of the Kingdom (or Breath of the Wild), Super Mario Bros Wonder (or Super Mario Odyssey), Animal Crossing, Splatoon 3 with DLC.
• New solid in-house game releases each month
• Remakes

Either way the FY hardware goal is still very reachable.

April (not including Rest of the World)	522,448
FY Hardware goal	13.5M
Total need to reach (total needed to sell/ship each month)	12.98M (1.08M)