curl-6 said:
Assuming Nintendo is lying about their forecasts seems like a leap. It's more likely there's unannounced Switch software still to come; they'll want to milk that massive userbase while they can before moving on. |
I don't think they're lying but people also act like sales forecasts are some kind of holy decree when companies bullshit about forecasts all the time. Sony just came off a fiscal year where they blew hot smoke out of their rear end and forecast a 25 million year for the Playstation 5 when they've never even hit 21 million in a fiscal year (and they predictably missed by a country mile).
The fact is by March 2025 lets be honest all the attention is going to be on the Switch 2, probably why Nintendo feels free to set ambitious sales targets because no one is really going to fixate on that by the time the next financial results come out. As long as the Switch 2 has a good launch, that's where all the investor attention is going to be. If they hit their Switch 1 targets, great, if they don't, no one is really going to be spending that much time thinking about the Switch 1 this time next year so it's kind of a win-win, well so long as Switch 2 launches well that is.
Lets say Nintendo does for example miss their Switch 1 software target by 30% next year and thus not managing to stay at just a 20% loss. Is anyone really going to care if Switch 2 has a good launch? Guess which one of those two stories will get all the news stories and investor attention. So why not try for a more ambitious software/hardware total. And vice versa, if Switch 2 doesn't have a good launch, well no one is going to care if you hit your Switch 1 targets because we're going to be right back into a "Nintendooomed!" news cycle.
Last edited by Soundwave - on 16 May 2024
