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Kyuu said:
EpicRandy said:

The context is cut-throat. Looking at the leaks of financial assessment with Spider man 2 last year you can see why that is. The title was anticipated only to start generating profits after the 10m marks. 

This is due to 2 main reasons:

1) The market has barely expanded in the last 15 years.

2) The budget of making video game more than doubled in the same time fame.

This directly cut into ROI and especially since profits from those sales are also used to support the subsidised model of console Hardware. The breathing room have grown extremely thin and created a cut-throat environment.

Covid made everyone think the above number 1 issue would be solve by driving growth in the industry and this thought have driven many investment in 2020 to early 2023. But it did not last, not only resulting in entity scrambling to secure there previous investment but also forcing them to acknowledge the current reality of the market.

The industry is adjusting itself to this reality and it's not pretty think to look at.

Software sales notably expanded when PC is taken into account which both MS and Sony now support. AA and AAA games cost more now to develop, but prices have also increased especially in Europe, and Sony games are retaining their prices much better than a few years back without selling less. Can you refer me to where it was shown that SM2 needs to sell 10 million to break even? Last I heard, the game cost $300 million (does the figure not include marketing?). Should generate profit at 5 million give or take.

But more importantly, why do all games have to be some highend AAA anyway? Low-mid budget AAA don't cost nearly as much as SM2, and AA cost even less. Helldivers 2 is considered AA and it "only" cost $50 million to make. Nintendo is killing it with medium budget games. And a crap load of indies, A, and AA games are more successful than anything AAA from Microsoft. Microsoft's own Sea of Thieves (not to mention Minecraft lol) is probably a lot more successful than the bigger Halo Infinite.

Higher development costs are more than cancelled out by games simply selling a lot more and averaging at higher prices in many cases. Availability on PC also greatly helps.

Software sales notably expanded when PC is taken into account which both MS and Sony now support.

Yes, for sure but it also comes with up to a 30% cut and some impact over sales you would have made on hardware, overall the benefits far outweigh the drawbacks IMO but it's not a silver bullet solutions either.

AA and AAA games cost more now to develop, but prices have also increased especially in Europe, and Sony games are retaining their prices much better than a few years back without selling less.

The rise in cost is symptomatic of the issue, for like 30 years the market did not raise the base price of games absorbing rise in dev cost with the market expansion.  Now they had to rise the price of game because budget increase have drastically accelerated while market have stagnated.

Can you refer me to where it was shown that SM2 needs to sell 10 million to break even?

Spiderman 2 was expected, prior to launch, to sell 10.5m copies and generate $75m in profits over a $315m budget. Now that's not bad and it's also conservative estimate but it's also one of, if not the most sure bet franchise Sony own.  

But more importantly, why do all games have to be some highend AAA anyway? [...]

Amen

Higher development costs are more than cancelled out by games simply selling a lot more and averaging at higher prices in many cases.

TBF I'm not saying the industry is not generating any profits, the ROI is just down compare to what it used to be and enough so that investment are perceived to be better spent elsewhere. Also there's more to this than just dev cost and market size, like over the last 10 years GAAS have grown to take huge segment of the industry and it create very few but highly successful titles that concentrate player spending making it more difficult for smaller title to make it.