The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[The_Liquid_Laser]

I see this 13.5 million forecast differently.  The reason Nintendo is making such an ambitious forecast is because they have to, and therefore they intend to do a lot to make this forecast happen. 

Why do they need to have an ambitious forecast?  Because Switch 2 isn't ready yet.  They want a strong software line up for the first 12 months for the next system, and they don't have that ready yet.  I expect the announcement to come early in 2025, and the release will be sometime in the second half of the year.  Since they only have 1 system, then they need to keep Switch 1 as profitable as they can for the next fiscal year.  They have to keep their investors happy.

Therefore expect the following:

1) Several software titles for the second half of 2024.  One of these titles has to be a decently big holiday type title.  It has to be at least as good as DKC or Tomodachi Life if not better.  There will also be several smaller titles and ports.  Pokemon Legends Z-A is a Switch 1 title that will keep the Switch selling in 2025 until their next system releases.

AND

2)  There is either a new hardware SKU for Switch or they are prepared to offer some serious bundles or price cuts.

So for the rest of 2024 and most of 2025 expect Switch to either get titles that would be made near the end of the system's life or games that can be put together in 1-2 years of development, ideally by devs outside of Nintendo proper: 2D platformers, Fire Emblem, a Torna-like expansion to XC3, Hyrule Warriors, ports, etc....  We should expect several more games like this before Switch 2.  Pokemon Legends Z-A is for Switch 1, because that comes from Game Freak.  The big games developed by Nintendo proper won't be coming until Switch 2 though: Mario Kart, 3D Mario, 3D Zelda, Splatoon, etc..., and that won't be coming until the second half of 2025.