Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

[Bofferbrauer2]

Ryuu96 said:

“Russia will likely be most dangerous in the final months of 2024. By that point, having weathered months of Russian offensive operations, Ukrainian forces will be stretched thin, their air defenses depleted. Russia will likely have enough troops to rotate its units”

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) May 3, 2024

“So far, Western governments have not aggressively pursued information operations against the Russian government, partly because they are perceived as escalatory and partly because they are not expected to have immediate effect...This asymmetry needs to be remedied.”

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) May 3, 2024

DNI: "China’s provision of dual use components & material to Russia’s defense industry is one of several factors that tilted the momentum on the battlefield...in Moscow’s favor, while also accelerating a reconstitution of Russia’s military strength" https://t.co/iyWIFhfY6g

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) May 3, 2024

Pavliuk: “We believe the Russians want to mobilise 100,000 more troops…By the end of the year we think that the Russians intend to mobilise nearly 300,000 more soldiers. But also they are losing nearly 25,000 to 30,000 per month in dead and wounded.” https://t.co/yNmRD2eb5Y

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) May 3, 2024

Pavliuk: “Drones kill more soldiers on both sides than anything else at present…They have also created a scenario whereby almost everything can be seen by drones, not just on the front line but to a depth of between 10km and 30km on either side.” https://t.co/yNmRD2eb5Y

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) May 3, 2024

Russia doesn't have any free manpower left and already has some major labor shortages in some sectors, so recruiting more would start to hamper their war economy. While I think Russia will still recruit those 300k soldiers, it will get detrimental to Russia on the long run, as there's only so much manpower they can import from the Middle East - and the Russian population is increasingly wary of this open-door immigration policy.