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Darwinianevolution said:

Palworld by far. Even if it's just because it's a completely new IP, whereas Helldivers 2 is the second game, so at least some people knew about it.

Also, Palworld is a must for the launch of Switch 2.

Sequels to such small games are much less likely to be hugely successful than new IPs (how many sequels, historically, grew as much as HD2?). Still, I'd argue Palworld is the bigger surprise of the two because it was far bigger at launch, and it's a game that I hadn't even heard of before launch.