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Norion on 23 April 2024
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Shtinamin_ said:
Norion said:

15% is not happening, let alone 10%. While it has done surprisingly well in Japan the past several weeks it's not gonna be able to compete with how well it did last year from week 18 till 41 and the successor will get announced at some point this year which will have a negative impact on sales including during the holiday season. 

Well of course it wont be able to compete with last year. We are on a down hill slope and so far this down hill slope has a very low gradient. We are essentially in uncharted territory for Nintendo that hasn't been seen since the NES. We are over 1/3rd of the way through the year and we are at -6.4% in comparison to 2023 sales. That looks very competitive but 2023 will be on top always from here on out. 2023 sold 3,949,463 units in Japan. The best selling week in 2023 was the first week of January (huge discounts) at 137,033 followed by the last week of April (pre-ToTK hype). There are 37 weeks left for 2023 and sold an average of ~79,988 units per week from next week to the end of 2023. Switch wont be able to sell an ~79,988 units per week but it can easily reach ~67,353 units on average from here on out leading to a total of 3.36M (-15%) by the end of 2024.

If we had a -25% drop in 2024, the Switch in Japan would sell 2.96M units. Meaning it has to only sell ~56,679 units on average per week from here on out.

I both scenarios are very likely. 56k may seem too low and too easy for the Switch in Japan, but I definitely see it as a hard floor for the rest of the year.

The point I'm making is it did so well during those weeks last year that there's no way it's gonna be able to keep up enough to only be 10-15% down by the end of the year. How can it easily reach that amount on average for the rest of the year when it's sold less than that 12 out of the 15 weeks so far? There's nothing massive happening like the Mario film and TOTK releasing close together to boost sales for a few months like what happened last year. The 25% drop scenario is realistic though I wouldn't say it's a hard floor since reaching 3m will be tough.