XtremeBG said:
I agree. They will. Does not make it true however. Just as they are writing the sales as 155M not exactly true. But Sony are here to blame too. Maybe they will come out with some official data regarding the PS2 final numbers.. who knows. Either way, the chances are pretty big that If Switch passes 155M will reach 160M too. Cuz where the 155/156M are, there are the 160M as well. It is slim chance for the Switch to finish in the 156-159M range, let's say it like this. So all of this may be pointless. |
RolStoppable said:
No, I don't expect Paper Mario and Luigi's Mansion to move a ton of hardware, because that's not how it works to begin with. The two of us have had discussions about Switch's sales momentum a few times in the last several years, and every time I've pointed out Switch's overall more than solid release schedule from first and third parties which will prevent sales from having a massive decline. In 2019 you doubted that Switch could pass 100m, later you doubted that Switch could pass the PS4, then 140m would have been too much of an ask in your mind. You know my argument already, so my response to the first half of your post can be condensed to me saying that the same logic will continue to hold true. Switch is on pace to exceed Nintendo's projected 141.1m LTD mark by March 2024 and they'll likely forecast a figure of ~11m units for the fiscal year ending March 2025, because Switch's successor will hardly have an impact in the upcoming fiscal year. That's a decline of ~30% after FY23 declined by only ~15%. That will put Switch's LTD by March 2025 at 152m; the DS's lifetime figure stands at 154.02m. An additional mere 2m after an 11m year aren't a challenge, so I don't need to go into detail for each region. Try to run a shipment forecast for yourself and you should realize how hard it is to keep Switch below the DS in lifetime sales. |
At bold 1: Yes, Sony is absolutely to be blamed when they will be declared loser if in fact they wouldn't have lost yet and they would absolutely deserve it! When they are unwilling to release exact numbers, then they have to live with the outcome, simple as that!
At bold 2: 100% agree with this statement: You can try and spin the the shipment numbers within a realistc space however you want, it will be impossible to come out below the DS numbers when all is said and done and the breakdown into regions becomes irrelevant. I also agree with Rol's earlier prediction that the Switch has a 75% chance of beating the PS2 (and that the 25% uncertainty mainly comes from not knowing what the exact final sold through numbers of the PS2 are)