Russia and Ukraine flashpoint

[Bofferbrauer2]

Ryuu96 said:

Ammunition bought in non-EU countries under the Czech initiative could reach Ukrainian battlefields as early as June, Tomas Pojar, the Czech National Security Adviser and the Prime Minister’s Advisor said.

"The promised money has to come, and the contracts must be made. At the… pic.twitter.com/Id9p3cgmam

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) March 13, 2024

As early as June...This is frustrating, from the miscommunications on how much was purchased and the timeframe of deliveries to the slow funding and now as early as June, Ukraine has to desperately hold on for another 2-3 months. Spring has already started, the ice will start thawing, Russia will soon have a good opportunity at an offensive.

Look it on the bright side, it also means that the clock is ticking for Russia.

US deliveries from the 300 Million aid package should fill the void until then, and deliveries from Europe are slowly but steadily increasing in the meanwhile, so come June Russia should lose it's artillery advantage and with it, it's ability do conduct offensive operations like in Avdiivka without suffering untenable losses.

Russian upper brasses most probably also know that their advantage is running out, so I expect them to throw everything at the front now, straight into the meatgrinder of well-prepared Ukrainian defense lines.

This will mean more territorial losses for Ukraine until then, but at a very high cost for Russia, which is already a bit hurting for personnel. Reports telling that Russia is slowly lacking trained personnel to man their armament production lines, meaning it's getting more and more difficult to get more soldiers without straining their war economy in the process too much. 

I don't expect Ukraine to really be able to go back on the offensive before Fall, but by then I think the scales will have tipped back in their favor, and even without any further US support I think Ukraine can at least reach parity with Russia in terms of shells.