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TheLegendaryBigBoss said:
shikamaru317 said:

It hadn't broken even as of their first 3 months of sales update, which was 1.3m sales, but there are promising signs that it will break even eventually.

1. It is tracking well ahead of Control, which is their best selling game to date. Control sold 4m+ so far, but Alan Wake 2 sales were tracking 50% above Control, so if that 50% holds into the future Alan Wake 2 is tracking toward 6m+ lifetime sales.

2. The game was Epic Store timed exclusive on PC, so PC sales were likely fairly low. When it hits Steam it will see a nice sales bump there.

3. The game was released digital only due to Remedy deciding to self publish and not having the means to do a physical release by themselves. They may yet decide to partner with some publisher for a physical release, which would give it a decent sized sales injection.

So yeah, all told they will definitely break even eventually. I believe they were only about 20m Euros short of break even after the first 3 months, which means they are only around 500k sales short. Most likely they will already be profitable by the time 6 months have passed since release. It's not ideal for a game to take that long to break even, but considering it will break even by around 1.8m sales and will likely sell at least 5m lifetime, there is still lots of profit to be made eventually. Remedy is clearly unphased, they just dropped 17m euros to buy the Control IP so that they can self-publish it too.

I doubt it will be released on steam, epic published the game.

Hmmm, I thought it was one of those timed deals Epic signs where they get exclusivity for 6 months and in exchange the developer of the game doesn't have to pay Epic the usual 12% of revenue from sales on Epic Store during those 6 months. But now that I'm looking into it, they also released Alan Wake Remastered only on Epic Store and it is still not on Steam years later. So I guess instead of the timed 6 month deal, they went for a lifetime deal ao that they never have to pay Epic that 12% cut. I guess Alan Wake 2 won't come to Steam then. 

Still, when you consider the fact that Remedy disadvantaged themselves by doing no Steam release and no physical release and a comparatively quite small marketing campaign for a AAA (just 20m euros), it's pretty impressive that Alan Wake 2 sales are tracking 50% above Control, a game that went on to sell 4m+ copies in the first 5 years. Alan Wake 2 will be at break even within the next 2 months most likely, and from that point on it's pure profit for them. They have 2 DLC's coming soon too.