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Soundwave on 29 February 2024
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Chrkeller said:
Soundwave said:

Yeah "support" as in more people getting fired as jobs get automated. That said I don't think AI is ready for prime time professional level usage at this point and possibly won't be for a long time, talking like 10+ years. 

As for GPUs, if AI takes over more of the rendering entirely it won't stop at lighting, GPUs themselves will likely go the way of the dinosaur as AI cores like tensor cores may just generate a photograph like image that doesn't even really use polygons or lighting at all but just approximates what it should look like based on a data set that its fed. 

But if that happens then it will likely mean you can just get photorealistic visuals on any kind of device and any one can make that from their own home, which is going to present a whole host of other problems for the traditional game industry. 

Though I don't see that happening for a while, for the time being for people banging the drum saying they want 2-3x better graphics than PS4 which will require budgets to skyrocket even higher ... who is paying for that exactly? Are you going to pay $120 for a game? And then what? Another dramatic jump for PS6? $500 million dollar budgets as the new normal? How many studios will be able to keep pace then? Right now sadly a lot of real people are paying for it with their jobs and livelihoods. 

This whole thing is not sustainable, if it was Sony wouldn't be firing all these people, if it was they wouldn't be going running to the PC, the simple fact of the matter is you can't increase budgets several times over every 6-7 years, keep the price of the games more or less the same (minus/plus $10 whopping bucks), and have no hardware growth either, PS5/XSX are on pace to sell less than the PS3/XBox 360 did. That's not a healthy business model and even Sony knows it.

It isn't a healthy business model.  PC day 1 will be a huge boost by over doubling potential customers.  And developer AI already exists in Ray Tracing.  And hardware gaps will exist for at least another decade.  RT is AI based and still requires a ton of processing power.  AI doesn't negate the need for strong hardware.  

AI will probably eventually completely take over the entire graphics pipeline and make GPUs as we know them today irrelevant. But that is likely not going to happen any time soon. 

The fact of the matter is for people who think they can have visuals approaching closer and closer to movie and photorealism quality, but don't want to pay a dime above $70 a game for that are living in a dream world. 

To make visuals like Horizon FW or the recent God of War, both of which were on the PS4 ... that takes right now, human beings to create, and you have to pay those people. And there's a lot of people who need to be paid a lot. We're talking budgets north of $200 million. 

That is a reality, we're already at a breaking point with PS4 tier games, we really are not seeing much way beyond that, if you even go double the current budgets ... the industry as it is right now will either fall apart or people are going to have to accept that studios are going to make the choice of reducing budgets to something sane and not aiming for the best visuals anymore. 

You can see this even in the new Monster Hunter Wilds game ... it really doesn't look that much better than Monster Hunter World, probably because Capcom does not want to pay 2x-3x the budget to sell probably the same number of copies. You'd be fucking stupid to do that as a businessman frankly.

Even Hollywood is in for a reckoning likely, if movie budgets get up to $400 million for an average Hollywood blockbuster, that is in no way feasible, it's going to collapse several studios (the ones left anyway). 400, 500 million dollars for a video game is insane, if that's supposed to be the "new normal", a lot of game studios are totally fucked.