Norion said:
burninmylight said:
It really feels like you're using the word "hypothetical" as a scapegoat to hide that you have nothing to back up your claims other than what-if scenarios. Norion said:
If it is delayed to early 2025 then overtaking the PS2 would become likely. A 3-4 month delay to presumably get software ready wouldn't be that big a deal but would still be a blunder from Nintendo cause holiday 2024 is the perfect time to make that quarter be big instead of weak so ideally launch software would be ready by then. Also from a personal perspective I want to see the new hardware as soon as possible by this point but at least it's only at most a year away. |
Sounds like a statement of supposed conviction and belief to me, not hypothetical pondering OK, so I'll spot you the claim that you're just talking about a "What if in hindsight?" scenario for the Switch 1's launch. Now explain why this applies to the Switch 2. I will repeat what I and others have said ad infinitum in this thread: if it sales out regardless of when it launches, then it makes absolutely no difference when it launches. The result is the same, demand outpaces supply and there is no holiday season to take advantage of. It's actually the opposite: the holiday season is wasted because these is no sales boost from it. The only thing causing a "weak" quarter is being so woefully stripped of resources to output more units that it hurts sales figures and/or forces Nintendo to lower projections. When is the last time Nintendo had a weak quarter? So again I ask, answer that last question, then explain to me how launching sooner would help prevent stock shortages for the Switch 2. Then explain to me how launching outside of the holidays makes for a weak quarter sans stock issues. |
1: Yes there is truly nothing to back up the claims that an appealing and hyped product will sell faster launching near Christmas instead of in Spring and that Nintendo would have a much stronger holiday season this year with the Switch 2 selling then instead of just the declining Switch. Are you kidding me? 2: Yeah I wasn't talking about a hypothetical there but did with the Switch in response to someone saying spring was a better launch window. It's pretty funny you're acting like there's a contradiction here when there obviously isn't. 3: This is just blatantly wrong, of course it makes a difference when it launches since it would have a few month head start to build up an install base. The weak quarter part is obvious, the Switch will heavily decline this year so it'll be their worst holiday season since 2016. Now if the reason for the rumoured delay is something entirely out of their control then it isn't a blunder but if it's due to mismanagement for example not having software ready in time then it is. Shtinamin_ said:
I understand that. You most likely know that situation Nintendo was in during the WiiU era. They had little-to-no 3rd party backing, and every game that was released was selling around 5M units. The best selling is Mario Kart 8 at 8.46M. Nintendo already had the specs and prototype for the Switch set up and knew they needed to get it out fast, and early (They knew that they wouldn't be able to "survive" another 3 years, hence why the Switch launch "mid-cycle"). They didn't have enough Switch stock in the first couple of months, and that is probably the decent point that can be addressed. They had made the Nvidia chip deal back in Jul 27, 2016. Personally, I dont know how long it takes to manufacture a Switch or a couple million so I can make assumptions (Nintendo thinks they can ship 1.76 million units from Jan 1 to Mar 31). Now Nintendo Switch is in the latter years so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and say they can manufacture about 2-3x that amount in 3 mounts. So if they were to launch it in Nov 2016, they would have ~3 months to manufacture, ship, and ensure quality, and quantity of their games (Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild). I can assume they would have ~5M units for the holidays available for launch. The other point that is the more likely reason, for Mar launch, were the games. Was Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild ready to be released in Nov 2016? My only assumption is no, because they went for a Mar release when a significant portion of consoles from Nintendo has released near the holiday season in the past (there have been many Spring releases, and Summer releases as well). If their circumstances were more in favor of Nintendo having a Nov 2016 release, I think Nintendo could have been able to sell more, around 6M more units. But if it would've launched in Nov 2016, would they Switch have caught on so fast, and be as beloved as it is, the pandemic boosted it so much, would it have not been relevant in 2020? idk. It is something to consider, what circumstances are you considering? |
If BOTW wasn't ready by late 2016 then waiting till March for the Switch was the right move in the end since it let them have a fantastic first year which after the failure of the Wii U and disappointing performance of the 3DS in part due it having a rough start they needed to make absolutely certain the Switch had a really strong start. |
