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If MS was smart, they should be able to make profit regardless of what their GP subs.

A quick internet check got me to a site that claims the average gamer buys 10 games over a console's lifetime. Let's go with $50 a game (some buy at 70 yes but many will buy discounted). That's $500 over 6 years, or $83 a year. Xbox % cut would be 30%, so $25 a year and $2 a month.

GP players from that 34 mil number are spending $11-17 a month right now (Phil said that 34 mil was full paid customers, not discounted ones). That's $132-$187 a year from these gamers, which is a lot higher than the $83 they'd typically get from purchases for the typical gamer. From what I've read, it sounds like third part payouts + other expenses amount to around $3 billion annually, and they are pulling in probably $5.3 billion or more, so that's 44% leftover for MS after third party companies get their share.

So for third party games, they should be getting more of the pie on GP than they did with game sales and the pie itself is bigger monthly and annually than the pie for game sales in the first place.