Xbox |OT|

[shikamaru317]

Ryuu96 said:

shikamaru317 said:

Yeah, there is definitely still room for growth, even if alot of it won't be on console. I remember back in January 2022 Xbox announced they have 120m monthly active users between console, PC, and cloud. We now know that only 34m are paying for Gamepass Core or above. That is alot of potential room for growth. I do think we will see Gamepass eventually hit 40m and then 50m, it's just going to take longer than Microsoft originally expected, they foolishly thought they had a chance of 110m Gamepass subs by 2030, and I just don't see them getting anywhere close to that this decade. 

My guess would be something like 38-40m later this year on the back of the 2023 1st/2nd/3rd party exclusives, ABK games on Gamepass including CoD 2024 day one. 50m by the end of 2026. Maybe 60m by the end of the decade if they are lucky and cloud grows alot. 

That 110m goal was silly, Imho, I don't believe Game Pass could ever reach 100m+, comparing it that directly to TV streaming services is not sensible Imo, I think the way people consume TV Shows/Films is a lot different to the way people consume Games, I'm not saying Game Pass can't appeal to a casual audience, it can, but I think it won't be able to engulf them in the same way TV/Music subscriptions have, for a few factors, it's a lot easier to binge a TV Show or Film than "binge" a game, whatever that would be, many TV Shows are exclusively to subscription services, Game Pass has no exclusives, there's far more TV Show content, you don't have to put much effort or thought into a TV Show versus a game, some people literally only play a single game so it would be useless to them, etc. But it doesn't matter, it was always positioned as an additional source of revenue and as long as it remains profitable it will be fine. Just don't have the expectations it will get Netflix numbers.

Most casual gamers are on mobile anyway these days, so unless Xbox plans to add their upcoming Android Xbox store to Gamepass, with a selection of free mobile games, kind of like Apple Arcade, I agree that they won't get anywhere near 100m ever, even some of the tv streaming services like Paramount+ and Max and Peacock are struggling to hit 100m subs, only the 3 biggest have pulled it off so far (Netflix, Prime, and Disney+), and even those 3 have all lost subs in recent months due to raising prices and the declining quality of their content libraries. Gamepass just isn't going to pull off 100m+ users, core gaming isn't big enough and casuals don't game on console near as much as they used to (Switch aside).

Last edited by shikamaru317 - on 15 February 2024