psychicscubadiver said:
XtremeBG said:
Yeah, yeah. Switch 7th year beat the DS out of the water. This is obvious. DS's power was in it's first 5/6 years. Switch's power wasn't at DS's level for that period, and now Switch has to compensate for that. It is doing it with it's 7th year for start. Which is great. However now is the real test. How and will the Switch sell enough in it's 8th year (calendar, or after march if you want, either way) and in it's last years in general. Obviously it will finish close to DS's final numbers but will it be short of 10M ? Short of 5M ? On par ? Pass it ? We will have way clear picture this time next year. Personally as the things stands now and with Switch finishing around 135M lifetime 2023 year, I think Switch will end up at around 150M. (143-145M with 2024) and crawl to somewhere in the high 140s or low 150s for the last few years of it's life. Of course, Japan is done. Switch's 1st place there is just around the corner .. so is the Switch's life there if you ask me .. Well not literally, of course there is 2-3 years there maybe of sales, but as a sales numbers in compare to the years it had, well I expect no more then 3M till end of it's life there, cuz based on the last declines we saw in the holiday, and even some weeks of the year (50-60K) I think the saturation really starting to hit hard. So I see Switch reaching 35M at best there. And yes, 3M from now on it may look as small number, however when you get to the point where everyone has one, it really there isn't from where to get those sales. They will drop hard. This year will be probably around 2M and next year with successor on the market I can see it dropping like a rock to less than 1M even.
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Lol, be careful making pessimistic predictions. Some users take those to heart.
I figure the numbers will drop fairly hard this year, but I'm still expecting 2.5-3M even with the release of a new system. The OLED system serves as an excellent double-dipping opportunity and I expect the new system to cost $400, making the old Switch a budget model even without price cuts.
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No, more like people take dishonesty to heart. Regardless his prediction isn't that pessimistic, it should be more accurate now since the console is clearly showing its age. Funny enough in another post he claimed no more than 150 million and now he is saying low 150 millions is possible. So clearly he continues to move the higher bound up and up, something he has been doing for months now.
@ Thread, Switch should sale between 2 million or 2.5 million I think with a more sparse line up and possibly a Pokemon 2024 game this holiday. Think they save a price cut for after Switch 2 and maybe one more remodel to reduce the entry level price or at least make a more attractive Switch Lite. Switch mini could be a clambshell maybe and could help the declines in Asian and European territories. As for rather it beats DS or not? I think it has DS in the bag, PS2 depends on if Nintendo keeps it around long enough has an entry level device next to Switch 2.
