Does Nintendo need to launch the Switch 2 in 2024?

[Shtinamin_]

haxxiy said:

Shtinamin_ said:

In 2022 we got Switch Sports (which should've been a huge hit) in April, Splatoon 3 in September, and Pokémon Scarlet and Violet in November. What a huge late Q2-Q3. Hence a solid holiday sale.
2023 we got Tears of the Kingdom in May and Super Mario Bros Wonder in October. There was no holiday game. Q1 was grand compared to Q3. Hence the lack of holiday sales we are used to seeing for a 7 year old console. Still very impressive compared to every other console before it. Essentially on par with how PS2 sold in it's 7th year (minus december).

People nowadays are unable to wait 6 months, people have been playing too many Candy Crush, too many Youtube, Tik Tok, Instagram shorts, and just too must instant gratification. I completely agree with you in regards to the leeching holiday sales.

If the Switch sells at least 3 million this December, then the share of consoles sold in the holidays, compared to its yearly numbers, will be about the same as they have been since 2020 (around a fifth).

Nothing unusual there, Zelda or not.

3M would be rather awesome. If so the Switch would be sitting at 136M sold and ~138M shipped (Nintendo Q3 shares figure).

2023 has sold 12.55M Switch units (minus december) with ~2.54M sold in Q3 (minus december)
2020 has sold 22.25M Switch units (minus december) with ~5.81M sold in Q3 (minus december) and 12.01M sold in Q3 with december.
If the Switch sales 3M in december, its would sell 5.54M in Q3, 45% of 2020's Q3

Just looking at the VGChartz Charts and it's looking like Xbox One's 2018 Q3-december (2.3M), and 3DS 2012 Q3-december (2.49M).
Xbox One 2018 Q3 ~4.8M (2.49M december), this was Xbox One's 5th holiday & their first party AAA holiday game was Forza Horizon 4
3DS 2012 Q3 6.43M (3.94M december), this was the 3DS's 2nd holiday & their first party AAA holiday game was Paper Mario: Sticker Star

Honestly I'm trying to figure out what was Nintendo's first party AAA holiday game.
Oct- Detective Pikachu: Returns, Super Mario Bros Wonder
Nov- WarioWare: Move It!, Super Mario RPG

I assume its Super Mario Bros Wonder but Oct felt a bit early for a flagship holiday game.