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HyrulianScrolls said:

One other thing to keep in mind for everyone convinced 3D Mario is so vital for launch: 3D Mario has historically not been a massive seller prior to Odyssey, which took years to get to such a high mark. Even 64 being hailed as the most revolutionary game ever at the time was like a 10m seller. Far from their juggernauts

If I remember correctly the top sellers for the N64 (based on media create white papers):

1) Mario64, 11.91M

2) Mario Kart 64, 9.87M

3) Goldeneye 007, 8.09M

4) Ocarina of Time, 7.6M

5) Super Smash Bros, 5.55M

Mario is Nintendo's mascot. Even if Switch2 will not launch with Mario, I think they will show something. Even though Zelda was the launch title for the Switch, we knew a Mario 3D was happening. There was a snippet in the November 2016 trailer and more was shown in the January 2017 presentation.