On the subject of AAA budgets, it definitely seems like if AAA budgets keep ballooning, the bubble will pop eventually and the AAA industry will collapse hard, something is going to have to give.
7-12 years ago $120m+ budget AAA games were rare, we would see the occasional AAA that went over that threshold, but most were coming in under that based on the few budgets we've discovered from that time frame from either official sources or industry analyst estimates:
- LA Noire (2011)- $50m development budget, unknown marketing budget
- Max Payne 3 (2012)-$105m
- Battlefield 4 (2013)- $100m
- Gears of War Judgment (2013)- $60m
- Watch Dogs (2014)- $68m development budget, unknown marketing budget
- Tomb Raider reboot (2013)- $100m
- Witcher 3 (2015)- $81m
There were some games from that timeframe that went over that $120m threshold, but they were mainly from so called AAAA studios like Rockstar or big GaaS games where post-launch GaaS support for the first couple of years was factored into the initial budget:
- GTA V (2013)- $250m
- Halo 5 (2015)- $160m
- Destiny (2014)- $140m
- Star Wars: The Old Republic (2011)- $200m+
But then look at the budgets we have discovered from the last 6 or so years, you can tell that AAA budgets have ballooned enormously on average:
- Mass Effect Andromeda (2017)- $100m
- Shadow of the Tomb Raider (2018)- $100-135m
- Red Dead Redemption 2 (2018)- Estimates range from $370-540m for the combined development + marketing budget
- Resident Evil 2 remake (2018)- Estimated at $100m+
- Marvel's Avengers (2019)- Estimated at $170m+
- Control (2019)- $32m development budget, unknown marketing budget
- Cyberpunk 2077 (2020)- $316m for the launch game, currently at $441m factoring in the budget of updating the game post release with patches and the expansion pack
- The Last of Us 2 (2020)- $220m
- Final Fantasy 7 Remake (2020)- $144m
- Ratchet & Clank: Rift Apart (2021)- $80m
- Horizon: Forbidden West (2022)- $212m
- Spider-Man: Miles Morales (2020)- $156m
- Spider-Man 2 (2023)- $315m
- Lords of the Fallen (2023)- $66m
- Alan Wake 2 (2023)- $76m
- Wolverine (upcoming release)- Given a $305m budget
- Spider-Man 3 (upcoming release)- Given a $385m budget
- Control 2 (upcoming release)- Given a $55m development budget, up from $32m on Control 1
It's pretty noteworthy to me that the cheapest games on the list come from parts of Europe where the developer pay is lower, substantially lowering the budget. This has allowed games like Control and Alan Wake 2 from Remedy and Lords of the Fallen from CI games to have easily sustainable budgets.
Something is going to have to give, budgets are flying up, publishers raised to $70 to help compensate, but gamers were highly resistant to the increase and many are now waiting on sales/discounts as a result. Gamers don't want microtransactions or $70, understandably, development costs are ballooning. It's a recipe for disaster. Publishers are going to have to reign in these budgets and stop focusing on graphics and huge releases as much as they have been, get development team sizes and development time back under control so that these games aren't being developed by 400+ dev teams over like 5 years. Focusing more on studios located in lower cost of living areas is a good idea, you simply have to pay developers too much in these high cost of living areas where many studios are concentrated like Los Angeles, San Francisco, Montreal, and Seattle.
Last edited by shikamaru317 - on 19 December 2023
