I do not think we will get a new Mario Kart at launch. The team have created a lot of new tracks added to Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, almost a full new game worth.
And why does people still act like Mario Kart Live: Home Circuit does not exist?
It might not be the game people wanted but it did take development time. Even with the rerelease of Mario Kart 8 Nintendo have spent plenty of time on the franchise this gen. A new game in the franchise is not ready by default. They would have needed a second team working on it in parallelly to the one creating the new courses for Mario kart 8 DLC.
I have never viewed Mario Kart as a system seller even if it often sits at the top of the selling charts. The broad appeal of the game make it the game to also get beside the game one bought the system for. Even if the primary game is Zelda, Mario, Animal Crossing or Metroid - might as well get Mario Kart also for some party fun. It is always a fun time but not really a new experience that I think early adopters look for.
I'm probably wrong, but that's my take.
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