The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[Shtinamin_]

XtremeBG said:

Shtinamin_ said:

My original prediction was that the Switch was gonna sell ~7 (I dont recall the exact, dont dont want to scroll through these pages) in November and December, sending the Switch to 140M. At the moment right now with the November Worldwide post, and Japan's 2 december weekly posts, the Switch is sitting at around 135.16M (~135,167,767, some discrepancies due to assuming when Nintendo states they sell 132.46M I read it as 132,460,000).

I expect this same consistency in 2024 at least 1M per month average til end of Oct. By March it will reach 141M.

I don't know where you are getting this wrong number .. We are talking about sold units, not shipped here. So according to VGChartz, with the month of November Switch is at 132.9M now. With December I think it will get to 135/136M at max. So how did you came up with that 135.16M is out of my mind ..

Are you trying to count the 2 weeks of Japan's december ? Because if that's the case, those are 170K both, which will get the Swtich to 133.1M not 135..

Also I guarantee you that the 2024 year for the Switch won't be 1M per month .. it will be far less than that, somewhere around 600k monthly. So by march the best what it can reach is 138M.

In the latest Nintendo earning report, https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2023/231107e.pdf , at page 9 there's a table labeled "Consolidated sales units, number of new titles, and sales units forecast" and the first section is regarding Hardware. At the 3rd column it has another label above it saying "Sales Units in Ten Thousands" and the 3rd column is labeled "Life-to-date Sept '23". Nintendo gives the total of 13,426. 132.46M sold. Nintendo labels them as sold. (Yes, Nintendo and all gaming companies label the shipped as sold and that because it is. Stores have already "bought" the consoles).
So we have 132.46M sold by the end of September according the the Nintendo 6 months Earnings Report. From September I added the VGChartz estimates from October (0.87 +132.46=133.33), November (1.66+133.33=134.99) and Japan's 2 weeks of December (171,831+134.99= 135.16M) to reach 135.16M.

VGChartz estimates are very accurate (example at the end of the September WW estimate post the total of sold matched Nintendo's reports, when aligned with Nintendo's June report). By the end of December VGChartz estimate will match Nintendo's earning report (aligned with September's report).