The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[Shtinamin_]

XtremeBG said:

archbrix said:

150m is on lock; Switch will be at 140m by March 31st coming off of a 15m year with dedicated support from Nintendo through the following fiscal.  I don't see a scenario where the console won't move another 10m lifetime, but depending on what Nintendo does and when Switch 2 launches, it could definitely fizzle out right after that and not make it to DS sales.

140M by March 31st ? I am not so sure. It will get to 135/136M with December. From there Switch made around 800/900k monthly sales the last few months before the holidays. Even with that pace it won't reach 140M it will felt short. However by January I expect Switch to drop to around 150k weekly (remeber that before the holidays Switch last couple of weeks were between 180k and 200k) and with that Switch is making no more than 600k monthly, which in return means that it will sell no more 2M for the first 3 months of 2024. Which it means that If it reaches 136M with December, then it is finishing March with no more than 138M.

And depending on when the successor is announced and launched the 10M till the next March of 2025 from April 2024 are under question as well.

My original prediction was that the Switch was gonna sell ~7 (I dont recall the exact, dont dont want to scroll through these pages) in November and December, sending the Switch to 140M. At the moment right now with the November Worldwide post, and Japan's 2 december weekly posts, the Switch is sitting at around 135.16M (~135,167,767, some discrepancies due to assuming when Nintendo states they sell 132.46M I read it as 132,460,000).

XtremeBG has said that he thinks the PS5 will sell at least 6M in December. Unless December they hit it out of the park and sell less than 6M, because I dont think Switch will outsell the PS5 considering what November looked like. (Just gotta do some math. 140-135.16=4.84). Ok so the Switch needs to sell 4.84M to reach my 140M prediction by the end of December. That is a tall order for the Switch and will be very impressive. It would need to sell about 1.6M per region, that will be difficult, almost impossible. I think Switch will get rather close to it though ~138M. 

Regarding the months after December and in fact the whole year, the Switch sells ~1M every month
Jan: 1.14M
Feb: 1.14M
Mar: 0.79M
Apr: 1.27M
May: 1.53M (TotK boost)
Jun: 1.11M
July: 0.95M
Aug: 0.94M
Sept: 1.04M
Oct: 0.87M
Nov: 1.66M
Average is 1.078M per month (excluding Nov)
I expect this same consistency in 2024 at least 1M per month average til end of Oct. By March it will reach 141M.

The successor will either be out September or November, September may be more likely. Switch sales will take a step hit once the successor arrives, but will still be supported software wise until approx. March 2025 giving the Switch and all Switch Nintendo Account users 6 months to transfer over. Should be an easy 120M purchases (if they have to stock of course) for the successor.