The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[archbrix]

XtremeBG said:

archbrix said:

150m is on lock; Switch will be at 140m by March 31st coming off of a 15m year with dedicated support from Nintendo through the following fiscal.  I don't see a scenario where the console won't move another 10m lifetime, but depending on what Nintendo does and when Switch 2 launches, it could definitely fizzle out right after that and not make it to DS sales.

140M by March 31st ? I am not so sure. It will get to 135/136M with December. From there Switch made around 800/900k monthly sales the last few months before the holidays. Even with that pace it won't reach 140M it will felt short. However by January I expect Switch to drop to around 150k weekly (remeber that before the holidays Switch last couple of weeks were between 180k and 200k) and with that Switch is making no more than 600k monthly, which in return means that it will sell no more 2M for the first 3 months of 2024. Which it means that If it reaches 136M with December, then it is finishing March with no more than 138M.

And depending on when the successor is announced and launched the 10M till the next March of 2025 from April 2024 are under question as well.

Nintendo hasn't revised its projections yet, but yeah, they may fall a bit short of 140m.  This holiday is not going to be great for Switch and I'm not expecting too much out of fiscal Q4.  But even if it does fall short of 10m next fiscal, 150m lifetime shouldn't be a problem for Switch at this point.