I’m going with March 25 launch headlining with Mario Kart World (what they will call it as it will have a huge open world esque online hub area not unlike Forza Horizon games) and MP4 exclusive for the Switch 2 to show off the full power of the system at launch. Probably a new Mario Party for the “party casual” game they always like to have. This is a decent parallel to what they did with MK8D/BotW/ 1-2 Switch for Switch launch. And just like that, 3D Mario will be the big first holiday title.