The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[Zippy6]

The_Liquid_Laser said:

Zippy6 said:

The difference is this time that it's not "will fall off a cliff." It literally has fallen off a cliff. -46% YoY Americas, -43% YoY Japan. The drop is humoungous. Maybe it can recover in December and pull itself back up over the edge of that cliff and post more respectable numbers, maybe it can't.

But comparing the talk this month to previous baseless "cliff" comments is disingenuous. The Switch in November 2023 has dropped like a rock, that's not a hypothetical irrational belief, it's a fact.

The cliff talk is the same, because it comes out whenever there is at least one data point that supports your argument, lol.  You don't, for example, wait to see if they meet their goal for the current fiscal year (which btw, they didn't in their second year).  You don't even wait until the end of the holidays.  All you need is one data point to support your argument and the cliff talk comes out.

It's cherry picking.

It's multiple data points, but for a single month admittedly which is why I said it could pull itself back up in December. It's the second biggest month of the year and it's looing like it will be over 35% down compared to last year, that's a pretty substantial data point. I think most people, myself included, thought 15m forecast from Nintendo was low-balling. Isn't it hypocritical of you to lecture people talking about a Switch cliff based on a 35% drop in November sales when you predicted a PS5 cliff based on zero evidence?

There is certainly the possibility that Nintendo meets their 15m forecast. But I don't think people being shocked by what is looking to be around a 35% YoY drop for November (when the Switch YTD up to October was only down 10%) has as little credibility as the ridiculous "cliff" comments of years passed.

Last edited by Zippy6 - on 14 December 2023