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haxxiy said:

Assuming a third of Wonder's sales are digital it should end the year around 2.25 million, a fall of 25% from the NSMB Wii game despite Wonder releasing a month earlier. Even if that were 50% digital it would have just matched it despite the Switch having three times the userbase.

That's a huge attach rate drop and it might be indicative that 2D Mario will be one of the few Nintendo franchises to see a decline this gen compared to previous highs.

Yea ngl I expected more from Mario games this gen. Outside of Odyssey and MK8 I feel like the other Mario games on Switch fell below my expectations compared to the other franchises that blew up on Switch. I would expect a game like Mario 3D World to be at around the 20 Million range on Switch considering that it has 2D Mario elements that would interest more casual consumers and we even seen Mario Odyssey reach close to 30M, but 3D World is still at around 12 Million which is the same as 3D Land on 3DS despite Switch having nearly twice the install base and an install base that buys way more software. Sold more than twice as much then the Wii U version but the Switch has 10 times the install base.

Mario Maker 2 also underwhelmed

even NSMBU, even tho it's an unambitous port, we saw that MK8 being a port as the bestselling Switch game, and for most of the Switch's lifespan NSMBU was the only 2D Mario but hasn't even crosses 20M when Wii & DS versions sold 30M.

I guess Mario already reached saturation well before the Switch era so the popularity of the Switch wasn't really gonna expand the series to many more people despite the Switch's huge install base.