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If covid didn't happen, I feel like the big releases for holiday 2020 would have been 3D World & Rise, both of which have gone on to sell more than 10 million units. I believe that 3D All-Stars and BDSP wouldn't even exist if covid and it's impact never happened. Arceus would be the big holiday 2021 title, with Splatoon 3 launching around late summer/early fall 2021. TOTK would be early 2022 and SV would still be late 2022. Switch 2 would probably release in late 2023 although it could be early 2024. Mario Wonder's development in our timeline had no deadline, but I feel that might be more strict about a deadline in this non-covid timeline in order to have the game out in 2022, at least a year before the successor.

Games like Forgotten Land, XC3, Engage, Mario Party Superstars, etc. also probably would've launched sooner.