Will the Switch's successor outsell the original Switch?

[Slownenberg]

No way. Switch was the first hybrid, and launched with a game that blew the industry away. I don't see how next gen they would generate that sort of buzz as the thing everyone needs to own. Also Covid helped boost sales for a couple years as well.

Now of course Nintendo could have sold a lot more Switch's if they'd pushed it more aggressively like with price cuts and more models (a cheap Home model for example), and price cuts on games, but they went for the selling 150m systems without a price cut strategy, which is a truly astounding feat.

So next gen Nintendo COULD be a lot more aggressive to try to keep up closer to Switch sales, but let's be honest they aren't gonna do that.

I'd say as long as they do the basics, ie. don't really screw up like price it at over $400, or tack on and try to push some useless unnecessary gimmick (think 3DS, WiiU), and as long as its backwards compatible, and they keep pushing the bounds of plenty of their IP, then it will probably still sell like 110m.

At this point their goal should be to emulate playstation sales. They have a very popular game system design now (hybrid play), they need to keep consistent with that, barring any revolutionary advances in ways to play games the next few decades, and just keep putting out better more refined versions of that while pushing their IP and always keeping everything affordable. They do that and they can be like Playstation after the PS2 (which was of course Playstation's huge 150m+ selling system), after which they've done 86m, 117m, and looking like probably another ~120m this gen. Which is to say, consistently easily over 100m and even when you really screw up you still sell over 80m. That's what Nintendo needs to try to do. Stay consistent with system design, consistent with great games that push gaming and try out new game experiences, and consistent with 100m+ sellers.