Personally, I believe Nintendo has another game we don’t know about (possibly DK, releasing around the theme park opening) that is waiting in the wings for Switch in 2024 set to be a decent-sized title. Something already done (like Wonder was) that would benefit the 140m+ user base of Switch more than it would the launch of Switch 2, which I think Nintendo has a specific criteria for.
So, after Mario vs DK and Princess Peach during the first quarter, we have Luigi’s Mansion 2, Paper Mario, and Metroid Prime 4, which I believe will be a dual-release. Throw in smaller stuff like Professor Layton and all it would take is another Pokemon remake/Arceus sequel as Switch’s November title for the console to have a very good 10m+ transition year.
And while I agree that a price drop is not happening while Switch is Nintendo’s main focus, I think that changes once Switch 2 releases and I do expect some sort of official price reduction in the future.
I had once pegged the Switch passing the PS2 by March of 2025; now ~152m by then sounds about right if Nintendo does indeed give the Switch the ending it deserves, which I believe will result in the console becoming the biggest selling of all time - even if that’s not Nintendo’s primary concern.
