The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[Shtinamin_]

Slownenberg said:

Yeah next gen Switch is certainly going to be backwards compatible and won't be priced more than $50 above the (at that point) 7.5 year old Switch. I do think they'll probably give the Switch and OLED $50 price cuts next year to keep sales decent until whenever next Fall the successor ends up launching (September I'm thinking). But even if the hybrid Switches are down to $250 and $300, and next gen launches somewhere between $350-$400 or perhaps has two SKUs at $350 and $400, few people would choose the old systems at only $100 less than the brand new system that plays all the games from the old system. There will still be buyers of the Switch, but there won't be many, and it'll be budget conscious buyers who don't already own a Switch after 7.5 years, so the Lite will probably be the most popular model at that point. I don't see the Switch selling more than 5 million once next gen launches, or at least not more than 5 million after holiday 2024, cuz maybe it still sells a couple million holiday quarter next year.

Furthermore, Nintendo is NOT going to want people to be buying the Switch once the new system is out. Because of backwards compatibility, so that it can still sell Switch games, they are going to want people picking up the new higher revenue system that also gives them access to the next ~7 years of games.

Switch might be at 145-146 million end of 2024, and by then I expect Nintendo will barely be producing any Switch consoles. They'll probably get a couple million excess consoles ready for the holidays that seasons and then bring production down under 50k/week, and then end production by end of 2025, maybe giving one last price cut to gradually sell the final 500k or so in 2026. Cutoff could come even sooner than that though. I think Switch will get to like 151 million when it's all over. From the day next gen launches Nintendo is going to be fully focused on getting people to buy that given bc and it not being that much more expensive than the Switch.

The rumors have said the Nintendo NG will have Backwards compatibility. This doesn't prove that the NG will be BC. Nintendo hasn't been the best when it comes to BC. Yes, most handhelds were BC with the previous gen, and the last two generations of consoles were BC with their predecessor (except the Switch). Honestly from a business standpoint I dont see a reason to make the NG BC, that would help distinguish that the NG is a new console and is something that everyone must have. Now, there are signs that the NG will have BC: reliable rumors, quote regarding software for Switch into March 2025 (only ~6 months after the release of the NG, so this point could be used for both BC and no BC), and easy access to 7.5 years of games.

I went to see how much Nintendo consoles were when they launch, and found a website that shows that along with their adjusted for inflation price as of 2022.


The economy in the last year around the world has been tanking, so most likely the prices would be around the $350-$400 mark. I think Nintendo, along with the rumors, will set the NG digital model at $400, and a cartridge model at $450 (in order to combat inflation, and especially the fall of the Japanese Yen). Do I want this, no. Never I'd rather pay $300 for my entertainment than $450.

Why do you think the Switch will only be at 145M? When it can easily reach 140M by the end of 2023.